The Psychological Assessment of Political Leadersher of reasons why the Gulf Crisis was particularly suitable for such
analysis:
- The episode covered a long time period (from the Kuwait
invasion [August 2] to the cease-fire [February 27], nearly
eight months), giving the protagonists many opportunities
to present and discuss their perceptions, motives, goals,
interpretations, plans, reactions to other participants and
to events, and so forth. - A wide range of diplomatic, economic, and military
maneuvers emerged at various stages of the confrontation,
with different individuals and nations taking active and
reactive roles at different times. - Many nations and leaders, representing very different cul-
tures, were involved, and the degree of involvement (for
example, potential losses and gains) also varied. - Both cooperative and competitive strategies were tried,
including armed attacks both with and without warning. - In a high proportion of the countries most closely
involved, the leader speaks for the government; his state-
ments represent his views on the topic, not merely the
transmission of a group decision.
The University of British Columbia research group conducted
two studies dealing with the integrative complexity of leaders dur-
ing this set of events. One (Wallace, Suedfeld, and Thachuk 1993a,
1993b) included statements made by heads of state and relevant
high officials of many of the nations that played a part in the Gulf
Crisis in the forums of the UN and international diplomacy; the
other (Suedfeld, Wallace, and Thachuk 1993) concentrated on the
top leaders of Middle Eastern countries.
The following comparisons of integrative complexity levels were
made in the two articles: leaders of more involved nations with lead-
ers of less involved ones; heads of state versus other officials; and pro-
and anti-Iraq leaders. We also conducted detailed comparisons of
George H. W. Bush and Hussein and examined changes in the com-
plexity of particular individuals as the crisis progressed toward a
solution. Several interesting findings emerged; in relation to Hus-
sein, the following were perhaps the most informative (the complex-