Migration from the Middle East and North Africa to Europe Past Developments, Current Status, and Future Potentials (Amsterdam..
DEMogRaPhic DEvEloPMENTS iN ThE MENa REgioN 219 7.3.2 Limits of growth In this scenario, the EU-27 would experience a slight ris ...
220 Ralf E. UlRich situation could ensue because of the Ihsu Dam, which Turkey is planning as part of its South-East Anatolia Pr ...
DEMogRaPhic DEvEloPMENTS iN ThE MENa REgioN 221 Table 7.8 Age group 0–19 years, in millions Index 2030 % of population 1950 2010 ...
222 Ralf E. UlRich over the next few decades, a rising group of young men will be entering employment age, many of them without ...
DEMogRaPhic DEvEloPMENTS iN ThE MENa REgioN 223 and will more than double in the MENA countries. Yet, in absolute terms, nearly ...
224 Ralf E. UlRich elderly population in the EU will be accompanied by a decline in the youth dependency ratio in the MENA regio ...
DEMogRaPhic DEvEloPMENTS iN ThE MENa REgioN 225 tion, but caution is necessary when an uneven demographic development is used to ...
226 Ralf E. UlRich market which can be felt today and which will certainly increase in future years are, however, not only and p ...
DEMogRaPhic DEvEloPMENTS iN ThE MENa REgioN 227 Figure 7.3 Demographic factors in the decision to migrate St ate, institutions G ...
228 Ralf E. UlRich although the net gains or losses are smaller than assumed. In 2008, 3.8 million people moved to and 2.3 milli ...
DEMogRaPhic DEvEloPMENTS iN ThE MENa REgioN 229 Heinsohn, G. (2008), Söhne und Weltmacht. Terror im Aufstieg und Fall der Nation ...
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8 Estimating migration potential: Egypt, Morocco and Turkey Heinz Fassmann 8.1 Preliminary remarks It is a well-known fact that ...
232 Heinz Fassmann increasing population (see Ralf Ulrich in this volume). In the long term, fertility rates there will fall, to ...
estimating migration potential: egypt, morocco and turkey 233 8.2.1 Macro-analytic model calculations The calculations based on ...
234 Heinz Fassmann 8.2.2 Survey data Micro-analytic studies on migration potential ask those directly ‘affected’ for their willi ...
estimating migration potential: egypt, morocco and turkey 235 8.2.3 Demography-driven prognoses The third method of studying mig ...
236 Heinz Fassmann tion rates in turn are derived from the empirically observed emigration per age group, with respect to the to ...
estimating migration potential: egypt, morocco and turkey 237 the relatively high fertility in all three countries. The median a ...
238 Heinz Fassmann rate, increases for cultural and social reasons (modernisation effects). Such areas harbour signif icant addi ...
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