Flight international

ightglobal.com 15-21 August 2017 | Flight International | 25

ANALYSIS

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jul-17

Number of aircraft

Source: Flight Fleets Analyzer

Airbus A320 family Boeing 737 family

Order backlog for Airbus A320 family and Boeing 737 family 2008-2017

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jul-17

Number of aircraft

Source: Flight Fleets Analyzer

Airbus Boeing

Order backlog for Airbus and Boeing 2008-2017

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Action Press/REX/Shutterstock

Airbus A350 has the biggest

backlog among widebodies

Source: Flight Fleets Analyzer (10 July 2017)

46% 24%

17%

5%

3%

3%

2%

Boeing

737 Max

2,610

Boeing

737NG

1,787

Airbus

A320neo

4,927

Bombardier

CSeries

342

Comac

C919

305

Irkut

MC-21

175

Airbus

A320ceo

564

10,710

To tal

Narrowbodies: order backlog

market share

passenger aircraft, with an additional 2,180
being converted for freighter service, includ-
ing 1,250 single-aisle types. Some 1,840
freighters will also be retired.
Continuing the trend of recent years, the
Asia-Pacific region should be the leader in
fleet growth, taking more than 40% of deliver-
ies – including 19% for China alone. The more
mature markets of North America and Europe
will take 18% and 16%, respectively.
Airbus and Boeing are expected to remain
the two largest commercial aircraft original
equipment manufacturers, between them de-
livering an estimated 86% by value of the
world’s commercial jet aircraft up to 2036.
However, the other manufacturers, including
Bombardier, Comac, Embraer, Irkut, Mitsubi-
shi and Sukhoi, are expected to capture an
increasingly significant volume of jet de-
mand, between them accounting for almost
$250 billion of delivery value.
Flight Ascend reckons the twin-aisle mar-
ket will remain the last duopoly in the com-
mercial aircraft sector for another decade, but
Comac and Russia’s United Aircraft have
launched a joint programme for a 280-seater.
There is a potential $100 billion of additional
deliveries forecast for twin-aisles from the
mid to late-2020s in this sector.
In the smaller sizes, the turboprop market is
expected to be worth $64 billion in deliveries,
led by the 70-seat sector, with potential for a
larger 90-plus-seat size from the mid-2020s.
Regional jets will be a $120 billion sector, led
by aircraft of more than 90 seats, although a
third of value will come from 70-76-seaters
serving the North American markets. ■
For the 2017-2036 Flight Fleet Forecast
visit flightglobal.com/forecast