The Economist - USA (2022-06-11)

52 Europe TheEconomistJune11th 2022

lenchonwouldseektoreversemostofMr

Macron’sreforms,whichhaveencouraged

privateinvestment andjobcreation. He

promises,amongotherthings,toreduce

thepensionageto 60 years,undoliberalis­

ing labour­market reforms, restore the

wealthtax,andincreasethenetminimum

wageby15%to €1,500($1,600)amonth.

TwoofhiscandidatesinParisinvitedJere­

myCorbyn,Britain’sradicalformerLabour

leader,tocampaignwiththem.

Still,thechancesarethatMrMacronei­

ther holds on to a shrunken majority,

whichwouldenablehimtopresson,or

losesit,which wouldspelltrouble.The

presidentwouldthenneedeithertostitch

togetheravotingmajoritywithunallied

deputies,orseekaformalcoalition.Yet,

having crushed the mainstream parties

withhiscentristbloc, MrMacronfinds

himselfaloneagainsttheextremes,with

fewoptions;thecentre­rightRepublicans

showlittleinterestinhelpinghim.

Thecampaignhasfailedtostirenthusi­

asm.“Peoplethinkthatthelegislativesare

just avote ofconfirmation, to give the

presidenta majority,whichisn’tverymo­

tivating,”saysMathieuGallard,ofIpsos,a

pollster.Indeed,bykeepingthecampaign

low­keyMrMacronmayhavehopedtoset

upthevoteasthenaturalsequeltothe

presidentialresult.Yettheupshotsofar

hasbeenmoreofa senseofdrift.Thishas

allowedMrMélenchontosettheagenda,

anddamagingevents,suchasthepolicing

fiascoata recentEuropeanfootballfinal,

todominate.“Everyseatwillbeafight,”

saysoneofMrMacron’sdeputies.Thegov­

ernmentisontheline.Ministerswhofail

togetelected,includingMsBorne,whois

standinginNormandy,wouldhavetogo.

MrMacronhasformdefeatingtheex­

tremes.ThereisplentytodeploreinMr

Mélenchon’s manifesto, not least its

pledgetobreachpartsofEuropeanUnion

lawortophaseoutFrenchnuclearenergy.

DuringthepresidentialcampaignMrMac­

ronclinicallyexposedthecontradictions

ofMsLePen’spromises.Nowheneedsto

dothesametoMrMélenchon’s.n

Onthecusp

France,forecastNationalAssemblyseats

Basedonpolling*for 2022 legislativeelection

Source:Ipsos

*PolledJune3rd-th 2022 †Renaissance(formerly

LaRépubliqueenMarche)& centristallies ‡LaFrance

Insoumise,Greens,SocialistsandCommunists

Others

NationalRally

LesRépublicains/

UDI

NUPES‡

Ensemble†

350300250200150100500

Min Max

Majority

Turkey

Erdogan’s war

on everyone

A

courtsentenced CananKaftancio­

glu to nearly five years behind bars and

banned her from politics. Her crime was to

have posted messages deemed insulting to

Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,

on social media several years ago. She was

transferred  to  prison  on  May  31st  but  im­

mediately released on probation. Her case,

she  says,  shows  what  Turkey’s  opposition

can expect over the coming months. She is

a politician from the main opposition Re­

publican  People’s  Party  (chp).  The  court

system  is  beholden  to  Mr  Erdogan,  she

says.  “The  courts  decide  on  the  basis  of

what passes through the lips of the man in

the palace.” 

The  presidential  and  parliamentary

elections Mr Erdogan faces next year look

set  to  be  the  toughest  of  his  long  career.

The official inflation rate has now topped a

staggering  73%.  The  true  figure  may  be  in

triple  digits.  Opinion  polls  suggest  that

most  Turks  have  no  faith  in  the  country’s

statistics agency. And even more pain may

be in store. Turkey’s currency, which reco­

vered at the start of the year thanks to the

introduction  of  a  deposit­insurance

scheme and sales of dollar reserves by the

central  bank,  is  now  bracing  for  another

crash landing, following Mr Erdogan’s pro­

mise of new interest­rate cuts. 

The Turkish leader’s election strategy is

starting to come into focus. With the econ­

omy  beyond  repair,  at  least  with  the  cur­

rent monetary­policy settings in place, Mr

Erdogan has decided instead to search for

monsters  to  destroy,  abroad  and  at  home.

Dressed up as a war on terror, a new wave of

repression is gathering steam.

Leaders of the country’s biggest Kurdish

party, the Peoples’ Democratic Party (hdp),

including  Selahattin  Demirtas,  a  former

presidential contender, have already spent

years  in  prison  on  trumped­up  terrorism

charges. Turkey’s constitutional court may

soon close down the hdp as a whole, citing

links to the pkk, a banned terrorist organi­

sation.  The  courts  are  also  starting  to  go

after  chp heavyweights.  Mrs  Kaftancioglu

will not be the last. Ekrem Imamoglu, the

mayor  of  Istanbul  and  one  of  the  opposi­

tion  politicians  best  placed  to  unseat  Mr

Erdogan at the next election, according to

polls,  may  well  be  next.  Prosecutors  have

accused  Mr  Imamoglu  of  the  heinous

crime  of  insulting  the  officials  who  over­

turned his victory in the 2019 mayoral vote

and  ordered  a  repeat,  which  he  then  also

won,bycallingthem“fools”.Averdictin

hiscaseisexpectedinSeptember.Iffound

guilty,hefacesuptofouryearsinprison

anda banfrompolitics.

MrErdoganhasalsomadeclearthathe

willnottolerateanypopularunrest.On

June1st,theanniversaryofthemassde­

monstrations that erupted across the

countryin2013,hecalledtheprotesters

“terrorists”andforgoodmeasure,“sluts”.

Weeksearlier,a Turkishcourthadconvict­

ed sevenactivists who tookpart inthe

sameprotestsofplottingtooverthrowthe

government and sentenced them to 18

yearsinprison.OsmanKavala,thephilan­

thropistwhomprosecutorsmadeouttobe

thegroup’sringleader,wassentencedto

lifebehindbars.

MrErdoganhasalsobeenbangingwar

drums,warningofa newoffensiveagainst

Kurdish troops,whom Turkeyconsiders

terrorists,inSyria.Asuccessfulinvasion

wouldlinkupareasTurkeycapturedin

three previous offensives, giving its

troops, flanked by thousands of Syrian

Arabmercenaries,controlovera650km

longstripofnorthernSyria.Thedecision

mayhingeonapprovalfromRussia,which

backstheKurdsandhassometroopsinthe

area.VladimirPutinmay betoobogged

downinUkrainetoopposetheincursion.

HemightalsobetemptedtoofferMrErdo­

gana greenlightinSyriaasa tokenofap­

preciationforhispledgetoblockSweden’s

andFinland’saccessiontonato.

Officially,Turkey’s president is upset

withSwedenandFinlandforrefusingto

extraditea handfulofKurdishmilitants,a

septuagenarianhuman­rightsactivist,and

followersoftheGulenmovement,a sect

Turkeyblamesfora violentcoupattempt

in2016.MrErdogansaysthisamountsto

supportingterrorism.Histruemotivesare

inscrutable.ButTurkey’sleaderisalready

usingthecrisistoscorepointsathomeby

whipping upanger againstEurope. The

Nordicsareonlythelatestandmostun­

likelyfrontinMrErdogan’swaronterror.

Hewillprobablyopennewonesaselec­

tionsapproach.n

I STANBUL

Turkey’s president prepares

for elections

Heading hyper

Turkey, consumer prices

% increase on a year earlier

Source: Refinitiv Datastream

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