Foundations of the theory of probability

(Jeff_L) #1
18 II. InfiniteProbabilityFields

actualrandomevents,the extendedfield
ofprobability (B%, P)

willstill remainmerelyamathematical
structure.


Thus setsof
B%

are
generallymerelyideal eventstowhich

nothingcorrespondsin
theoutsideworld.However,ifreasoning


which
utilizestheprobabilitiesofsuchidealeventsleadsustoa


determinationofthe probabilityof anactual eventof
g,

then,

from an empirical point of view also, this determination will


automaticallyfailtobecontradictory.

§


  1. ExamplesofInfiniteFieldsofProbability


I. In
§

1 of thefirst chapter, wehave constructed various

finiteprobabilityfields.


Letnow
E

=

{£x

,
£ 2

>•••>
ln»


  • •}


bea

countable
set,andlet

5

coincidewiththeaggregateofthesubsetsofE.


Allpossibleprobability fieldswithsuchanaggregate
5

are

obtainedinthefollowingmanner:

We

take
a

sequenceofnon-negativenumbers

p„,

suchthat

Pi+Vi+

...
+
Vn

+•••

= 1

andforeachsetAput


P(A) -
2'fin,

n

wherethesummation


2'
extendstoalltheindicesn for

which

$n


belongs toA. Thesefields ofprobabilityareobviously Borel

fields.


II. In thisexample, weshallassumethat E represents the

realnumber
axis. Atfirst,let
g


beformedof

allpossiblefinite

sums of half-open intervals [a; b)


— {a£.tj<b}
(taking into

considerationnotonlytheproperintervals,withfiniteaandb,


butalsotheimproper intervals [-


<x>

;

a), [a,-+ oo) and [-o©j

4-oo

)

).
g

isthenafield.Bymeansoftheextensiontheorem,how-

ever, eachfieldofprobabilityon
5


canbeextendedtoasimilar

field onB%. The system
of sets


B% is, therefore, in our case

nothingbutthesystemofall


Borelpointsets on
a

line. Letus

turnnowtothefollowingcase.


III. AgainsupposeEtobetherealnumber

axis,while

g

is

composedofallBorelpointsetsofthisline.Inordertoconstruct


a field of probability with thegiven field
gf,


it is sufficientto

defineanarbitrarynon-negativecompletelyadditiveset-function

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