who believed that the most important political consequence of modernization
in a pre-industrial society is a rapid increase in political mobilization and
participation (Huntington and Dominguez, 1975, pp. 33–47). If political
instability is to be avoided, such participation needs to be matched by a
corresponding level of institutional development. By and large this had not
happened in developing countries. On the contrary, ‘institutional decay has
become a common phenomenon of the modernizing countries’ (Huntington,
1965, p. 407). Violence and instability have been the consequence of political
institutions developing more slowly than the rate at which new socio-
economic groups were being politically mobilized (Huntington, 1968, p. 5).
The lack of effective political institutions makes it impossible for demands
to be channelled through effective and legitimate procedures. Huntington saw
the relationship between political participation and instability as follows:
(1)
Social mobilisation
Social frustration
Economic development
(2)
Social frustration
Political participation
Mobility opportunities
(3)
Political participation
Political instability
Political institutionalisation
(Huntington, 1968, p. 55)
A problem with this explanation is that it contains a tautological element
(Leys, 1982). ‘Institutionalization’ refers to a process through which conflict
can be managed in a peaceful and structured way. It does not just mean the
creation of organizations. The institutionalization argument seems tanta-
mount to saying that if individuals and groups are prepared to participate in
politics by playing according to the rules and abiding by the outcomes of so
doing, there will be stability. An increase in participation leads to instability
if political institutions cannot absorb it, but instability is the evidence that
institutionalization is insufficiently developed. In other words, there will be
stability when there is no instability. We are left needing an explanation of
why people should behave in ways that are not constitutionally sanctioned.
Revolution in the Third World
The ultimate manifestation of political instability is revolution. Revolution
involves the replacement of a whole social order, and not just a political
regime, by another. Ideologies and new forms of organization are required.
Solidarity is mobilized, mainly along class lines, but religion may be
242 Understanding Third World Politics