The Economist (2022-01-08)

22 UnitedStates TheEconomistJanuary8th 2022

CongressandtheWhiteHouse.Muchof

theostensiblyhighest­prioritylegislation

pledgedtoitspartisans—tobolstervoting

rights,boostunions,reducepolicebrutali­

tyandreformtheimmigrationsystem—is

deadonarrival,becausethefilibusterin

theSenateallowstheRepublicanminority

to deny it passage. The filibuster itself,

whichprogressiveshadoncehopedwould

bedispensedwith,issettostay.

Ratherthanwastetoomuchtimeon

signallingbillswithout muchchanceof

passage,Democrats areinsteadlikelyto

devotemonthstoresuscitatinga palever­

sionofbbb(whichitselfistheoretically

passableonlybecausea specialbudgetary

procedurecancircumventthefilibuster).

StrenuousnegotiationswithJoeManchin,

themainDemocraticholdout,aretheonly

wayforwardforthepresidentifhewishes

tohavesomethingsubstantivetopresent

tovotersinNovember.Theyarelikelyto

dragformonths.Thedemandsofthecam­

paignseasonandthedifficultyofactual

passagemayleavelittletimeorinclination

foranythingelse.

Byyear’s end, then,momentum will

probablyhaveshiftedfromDemocratsto

Republicans.Electoralvictorywillseemto

validatetheparty’sfailuretoreckonwith

its leader’s serious attempts to subvert

elections.Infact,itmaybeevenmorebe­

holdentohim.

FewoftheRepublicanswhovotedto

impeachMrTrumpforhisactionsafterhis

electorallosswillremaininoffice.After

purgesinthepartyprimaries,internalre­

sistance to Mr Trump’s whims will be

weaker.The former establishmentarians

whomadetheirpeacewithTrumpismwill

seerewards.KevinMcCarthywillprobably

ascendto thespeakership oftheHouse

thathecovets.Allthis willbeachieved

withnoneedfortheRepublicanPartyto

comeupwitha policyagendainresponse

tothedefeatsin2020.

The ambitious policy agenda of the

Democrats,meanwhile,willprobablylan­

guishastheusualforcesofgridlockand

partisanshipcometodominatea divided

Congress.LikeMrObamabeforehim,Mr

Bidenwillthenhavetorelyontransient

executive actionsandorders to getjust

aboutanythingdone.

Inbothparties,jockeyingforthenext

presidentialelectionisalreadywellunder

way,thoughthecontestmaybea repeatof

2020.BothMrBidenandMrTrumparehu­

bristicenoughtorefusetorelinquishpow­

ertoyoungerpoliticians.Yetbotharealso

old enoughfor their healthto preclude

them from running.KamalaHarris, the

vice­president,willstillbetheDemocrats’

heir apparent,despite her dismal cam­

paignin 2020 androckyfirstyearasthe

second­in­command. If Mr Trump were

nottorun,a populistcraftedinhisimage,

suchasFlorida’sgovernor,RonDeSantis,is

his likely successor.Even ifthe elderly

menweretostandaside,Americaislikely

tobetreatedtoa duelofseconds.n

Presidential plummet

US presidential net approval, percentage points

Source:YouGov/TheEconomist

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

350300250200150100500

Trump

Obama

Biden

Days in oce

AdjustingtoOmicron

Covid reconsidered

O

micron, amajor  variant  of  the  sars­

cov­2  virus,  prompted  governments

around  the  world  to  scramble  to  slow  it

down as it surged from late November. The

Biden  administration  announced  a  travel

ban  (since  revoked)  against  eight  African

countries and a shortened window for test­

ing (from 72 hours to 24) for inbound trav­

ellers.  Hospitals  began  filling  with  pa­

tients.  By  late  December  daily  cases  were

higher than ever. More than 3,700 schools

began in January with remote learning.

Yet  some  measures  are  being  relaxed.

The  Centres  for  Disease  Control  and  Pre­

vention  (cdc)  shortened  the  recommend­

ed  isolation  period  from  ten  days  to  five,

plus five of mask­wearing. On January 4th

it updated the guidance to encourage test­

ing. Anthony Fauci, the leading adviser to

the White House on infectious diseases, is

calling for less emphasis on case rates and

a  focus  on  hospitalisations  and  deaths.

Why this mixed response?

Though  more  contagious  than  Delta,

the  previous  dominant  strain,  Omicron  is

less  severe.  It  is  spreading  at  a  time  when

more people have immunity from vaccines

or  have  had  covid  in  the  past;  both  offer

high  protection  against  severe  covid.  In

Britain  people  with  Omicron  are  55­69%

less  likely  than  those  with  Delta  to  need

hospital  care,  largely  because  more  Omi­

cron  cases  are  reinfections.  Vaccines  also

help. One study found that two doses of the

Pfizer­BioNTech  vaccine  were  70%  effec­

tive against hospitalisation for Omicron.

Hospitals are filling mostly with unvac­

cinated  patients,  and  the  least­vaccinated

areas are being hit the hardest with severe

illness.  Some  states,  like  Kentucky  and

Michigan, have experienced more covid­19

deaths than before vaccines were available.

Their  vaccination  rates  also  lag  behind:

54% and 57% of their populations are fully

vaccinated,  respectively,  compared  with

over 70% in most north­eastern states.

America’s  overall  vaccination  rate  re­

mains  stubbornly  low.  On  January  7th  the

Supreme Court will hear arguments in two

cases challenging Joe Biden’s efforts to get

more Americans jabbed. In National Feder-

ation of Independent Business v Department

of Labour, Occupational Safety and Health

Administration, the  justices  will  weigh  an

emergency  rule  that  all  businesses  with

100 or more workers need to be fully vacci­

nated  or  masked  and  tested  weekly.  After

the  Fifth  Circuit  Court  of  Appeals  blocked

the  mandate  in  November,  a  three­judge

panel of the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals

reinstated it. Now the Supreme Court will

decide  whether  the  vaccine­or­test  rule

can be imposed while litigation drags on. 

The  justices  will  also  take  up  a  rule  by

the Department of Health and Human Ser­

vices  requiring  jabs  for  health­care  work­

ers  at  nursing  homes  and  other  facilities

covered  by  Medicare  or  Medicaid.  In  No­

vember  two  district­court  judges  blocked

this mandate as an unconstitutional usur­

pation  of  congressional  power.  The  gov­

ernment argues that the mandates are jus­

tified  to  cope  with  a  public­health  emer­

gency. Opponents say the purported emer­

gency is overblown. They contend that the

agencies  lack  authorisation  to  issue  man­

dates that will disrupt health care.

The health­care industry can hardly af­

ford  further  disruption.  The  cdchas  re­

duced the isolation period in response to a

need  for  workers.  Many  hospitals  in  New

York  could  no  longer  accept  patients  in

WASHINGTON, DC

America starts to favour social

well-being over individual illness

Testing times