The Economist - USA (2022-03-12)

44 Europe The Economist March 12th 2022

ture  make  it  the  West’s  mostimportant

gateway  to  Ukraine.  The two countries

share a 530km (330­mile) border,punctuat­

ed by over a dozen crossings.Theairportin

Rzeszow,  about  an  hour’sdrivefromthe

border, is the closest big airporttoUkraine

on  natoterritory.  Flight  radardatashow

an  uptick  in  military  aircraft,almostcer­

tainly involved in weaponsdeliveries,fly­

ing in and out of Rzeszow sincethestartof

the  war.  Were  Kyiv  to  falltotheRussians,

which  is  still  far  from  guaranteed,Ukrai­

nian  troops  and  volunteerswouldproba­

bly regroup in the west of thecountry,inor

around  Lviv,  only  80km  fromthePolish

border.  This  would  furtherraisePoland’s

importance for Ukraine.

The  war  has  already  strengthenedPo­

land’s position in nato. Theallianceisin­

creasing its presence in Polanddramatical­

ly. America had deployed nearly5,000new

troops  to  Poland  in  February,evenbefore

the Russian invasion, bringingthetotalto

some  9,000.  It  also  recentlyapprovedthe

sale to Poland of 250 Abramstanks.

Poland also hopes to reconcilewiththe

rest  of  the  eu.  The  bloc has repeatedly

chided  Poland’s  nationalist government

for  stacking  its  top  court withcronies,

threatening judges who ruleagainstitand

harassing  the  media. The stand­off

prompted  the  euto  freeze€36bninpan­

demic  recovery  funds  earmarkedforPo­

land  and  to  fine  it  for  ignoringrulingsby

the  European  Court  of  Justice.Polandhas

moved to meet some eudemands,andits

efforts  in  the  face  of  Russia’saggression

may earn it a more sympathetichearing.

But  there  are  incalculable risks in­

volved,  too.  Analysts  sayRussianretalia­

tion of one kind or anotheragainstPoland

is a near certainty. The longerthewarlasts,

the  more  desperate  Russiawillbetode­

stroy the supply lines connectingPolandto

Ukraine. “I’m afraid that Russianrocketat­

tacks against those supplylinesaresome­

thing  we  have  to  take  intoaccountinthe

coming  days  and  weeks,”saysWojciech

Kononczuk of the Centre forEasternStud­

ies, a think­tank in Warsaw.Americaclear­

ly takes the possibility seriously:it issend­

ing Patriot missile­defencebatteriestoPo­

land. Others mention the threatofRussian

sabotage and cyberattacksinsidePoland.A

social­media  monitoring  grouphasalrea­

dy  uncovered  a  Russian disinformation

campaign  intended  to  spreadpanicand

drive  up  resentment  towards refugees

from Ukraine.

Vladimir  Putin’s  threatsagainstcoun­

tries that interfere in Ukrainearenottobe

taken lightly. But for Polandandnato, the

only risk bigger than that ofRussianretali­

ation  is  the  risk  of  Western inaction.

“There’s  no  alternative,  becausewe’rein

the  same  boat,”  says  Mr  Kononczuk.“The

only  difference  is  that  Ukraine’s in the

front, and we’re in the back.”n

Turkey’sopposition

The compromise

candidate

K

emalkilicdaroglu, theleaderofthe

socialdemocraticRepublicanPeople’s

Party(chp), Turkey’smainoppositionpar­

ty,isbracingforthebiggestshowdownof

hiscareer.“Erdoganwilldoeverythingnot

toleave,”hesaysathisparty’sheadquar­

ters,referringtothecountry’spresident,

RecepTayyipErdogan,andtheoutlookfor

nextyear’selections.“Hewillpileonthe

pressureonthejudiciary,hewilltrytosi­

lencethefreemedia,andhewilltrytoma­

nipulatetheelectionboard,”saysMrKilic­

daroglu. “But at theballot box,we will

teachhima lesson.”

Mr Erdogan’s opponents are closing

ranks. On February 28th six opposition

parties,includingthechp, signeda decla­

rationoutliningtheirplanstooverhaulthe

presidentialsystem,whichgivesMrErdo­

ganuncheckedpowers,restoremorepow­

ertoparliamentandshoreupstateinstitu­

tions,startingwiththecourtsandthecen­

tralbank.Thealliancehasyettoannounce

itscandidateforpresident.Butthereisev­

eryindicationMrKilicdarogluwillrun.

MrErdoganandhisJusticeandDevel­

opment(ak) partyhaveseldomlookedas

vulnerable. Inflationhas surged to over

54%,theresultofMrErdogan’smisguided

insistenceonlowinterestrates.Thecur­

rency, proppedupsincethestartofthe

year by adeposit guarantee programme

andcostlycentralbankinterventions,is

againtakinga battering,thistimeasa re­

sultofthewarinUkraine.Hopesofaneco­

nomicrecovery,whichMrErdoganpinned

ona calmsummerandbillionsofdollars

of tourism revenue, are being blown apart

by Russian missiles in Ukraine. 

The wave Mr Kilicdaroglu hopes to ride

to the presidency swelled in 2019, when the

chp and its main partner, the iyi (“Good”)

party, prevailed over ak in five of Turkey’s

six largest cities, including Istanbul, in lo­

cal elections. Mr Kilicdaroglu, who pieced

together the opposition alliance, was a big

part of the success. 

Many opposition voters fear Mr Kilicda­

roglu  is  the  wrong  candidate  to  take  on

Turkey’s strongman, however. Of the three

most  plausible  opposition  candidates  for

the  presidency,  Mr  Kilicdaroglu  polls  the

worst  against  Mr  Erdogan,  though  he  still

leads  by  a  decent  margin.  In  a  country

whose  entire  political  culture  needs  a

shake­up,  the  bespectacled  former  civil

servant, though affable and sprightly at 73,

is hardly a symbol of rejuvenation. 

Still,  Mr  Kilicdaroglu  has  a  number  of

redeeming  qualities.  One  is  the  direction

in  which  he  has  taken  his  party  over  the

past decade, away from an obsession with

secularism, and towards a more moderate,

inclusive politics. The notable exception is

his  attitude  towards  the  nearly  4m  Syrian

refugees living in Turkey, whom Mr Kilic­

daroglu  has  repeatedly  promised  to  send

home. He says he would not force them to

leave, but make it easier for them to return

by rebuilding Syria. 

Mr  Kilicdaroglu’s  biggest  strength  may

be the trust he enjoys among the rest of the

opposition. The system Mr Erdogan foisted

upon  Turkey  gives  the  president  such

broad powers that the risk of abusing them

is  considerable.  Other  opposition  leaders

feel  more  comfortable  with  Mr  Kilicdaro­

glu at the wheel than anyone else (except,

presumably,  themselves),  says  Seren  Sel­

vin  Korkmaz,  head  of  the  IstanPol  Insti­

tute,  a  think­tank  in  Istanbul.  The  chp’s

leader  may  indeed  havethemakings  of  a

good president. But he stillneeds to prove

that he is a good candidate.n

A NKARA

President Erdogan’s mild-mannered

presumptive challenger

No spring chicken, but a breath of fresh air