The Economist - UK (2022-03-19)

48 Asia TheEconomistMarch19th 2022

This month he repeated the trick in Johor,

drawing such adulation that it bordered on

“cultlike”,  in  the  words  of  Serina  Abdul

Rahman,  a  researcher  at  the  iseasYusof­

Ishak Institute, a think­tank in Singapore. 

The string of victories at the provincial

level—a bn ally won an election in the state

of  Sarawak  in  December—will  pile  pres­

sure on the prime minister to call an early

general  election  to  capitalise  on  the  mo­

mentum. If the party wins a strong majori­

ty, Mr Najib may yet weasel his way out of

his prison sentence, perhaps by securing a

pardon  from  the  Yang di-Pertuan Agong,

the head of state, or by convincing the at­

torney­general to drop the remaining char­

ges against him, or both.

Mr  Najib  now  styles  himself  a  man  of

the  people,  claiming  that  he  has  donated

his  wealth  to  the  party.  It  is  true  that  the

stench of corruption still clings to his per­

son. Yet many Malaysians did not mind the

smell  in  the  first  place.  In  power,  he  re­

warded  supporters  with  cash  handouts

and  aid.  Later  governments  were  not  as

generous.  Politicians  “are  all  corrupt  any­

way but at least during Najib’s time, we got

aid, we got help,” says Ms Serina, summing

up the attitude of many voters. Mr Najib is

still  the  country’s  “biggest  patron”,  says

Bridget Welsh of the University of Notting­

ham Malaysia. 

Many voters look back on his premier­

ship  with  nostalgia,  as  a  time  of  stability

and prosperity (and not just for Mr Najib).

Since 2018 Malaysia has been roiled by the

pandemic  and  interminable  political  cri­

ses, with three governments in four years.

Johorians especially are worried about the

economy;  many  commuted  to  next­door

Singapore for work. The closure of the bor­

der for nearly two years has hurt.  

Moreover,  Malaysian  politicians  rou­

tinely  stoke  the  grievances  of  the  Malay

majority against ethnic minorities. Mr Na­

jib, who is not above such tactics, is regard­

ed as the protector of Malay tradition. Ma­

ny  voters  thus  seem  inclined  to  forgive

him.  His  conviction  does  bother  Mansur

Sapari,  a  33­year­old  doctor  in  Johor  who

voted for bnin this week’s election. But, he

adds, “nobody’s perfect.”

As Mr Najib basked in his victory in Jo­

hor,  supporters  at  umno headquarters

roared,  “Dissolve  parliament.”  That  may

not happen any time soon. Mr Ismail Sabri

is  in  no  hurry  to  call  elections.  He  lacks  a

strong base within umnoand knows he is

likely to lose his job as prime minister in a

new parliament. But it will be increasingly

difficult  for  him  to  resist  the  pressure

mounting within the party. 

Yet  umno’s  performance  in  Johor  was

not as strong as the headlines suggest. Pol­

iticians failed to fire up voters: turnout, at

55%, was low. Many Johorians have tired of

politics, according to Ms Serina. And Peri­

katan Nasional (pn), a newish coalition of

Malaypartieswhichflailedduringitsshort

spellingovernmentin2020­21,hassur­

prisingly emerged as a serious rival.

Thoughitwonjustthreeseatsinthelegis­

lature,itreceived24%ofthevote.TheMa­

layvoterswhomumnolostin 2018 have

switchedtheirallegiance topn, reckons

HamidinAbdHamidofUniversitiMalaya

inKualaLumpur,thecapital.

Still,umno’s successesatthestatelevel

suggestthecountrymaybe“returningto

old­stylepolitics”,saysMrChin,whereone

partyclingsontopowerbyamplifyingten­

sionsbetweenMalaysandminorities,and

rewardssupporterswithcash,furtheren­

trenchingpatronageinthepoliticalsys­

tem.ThatwouldbegoodnewsforMrNajib

andbadnewsforMalaysia—nobodydoes

theoldstylebetterthanBossku. n

Climatechange

Heatisland

O

nmarch13th,ascommutersstream­

ed out ofChhatrapatiShivaji Termi­

nus,a gothicrevivalmasterpieceinMum­

bai,India’scommercialcapital,theywere

confrontedwithtemperaturesapproach­

ing40°C,nearly7°Cabovenormalforthe

timeofyear.Thecityisinthemidstofa de­

bilitatingheatwave,its13thinthepastfive

decades,nearlyhalfofwhichoccurredin

thepast 15 years.Mumbai’saveragetem­

peraturehasincreasedbyover1°Cinthat

period(seechart).

Had those commuters crossed the

street from thestation andentered the

city’s(equallygrand)municipalheadquar­

tersthatday,theymighthavefoundcause

foroptimism.Thatafternoonbigwigsfrom

themunicipalityandthestateofMaha­

rashtra,ofwhichMumbaiisthecapital,

hadgatheredtounveila“climateaction

plan”.Thecityaimstoreachnet­zeroemis­

sionsby2050,twodecadesearlierthanthe

targetsetbythenationalgovernment.

Mumbaiisextremelyvulnerabletocli­

matechange.Anarrowanddenselypopu­

latedisland,madeupmostlyofreclaimed

landandsurroundedonthreesidesbythe

Arabian Sea, it is batteredby monsoon

rainsforfourmonthsa yearandroutinely

subjecttobiblicalflooding,especiallydur­

inghightide.Thatisbadenoughforthe

city’s apartment­dwellers.Butitis even

worseforthe42%ofthepopulationwho

liveinslums,whichareliabletobewashed

awayorburiedbylandslides.

Thebackboneoftheplanisa proposal

todecarboniseMumbai’senergy.Generat­

ingthecity’selectricity, whichproduces

nearlytwo­thirdsofthecity’semissions,

reliesmostlyonburningfossilfuels,par­

ticularlycoal.Thecitywantstoincrease

theshareofrenewables.Itislooking,for

instance,into installingsolarpanels on

rooftops.Another priorityisto improve

the quality and efficiency of the city’s

buildings.Slums, especially,are heatis­

lands. Madeofwhatevermaterialsareat

handorcheaplyavailable,includingtar­

paulinandtin,theyarefiveorsixdegrees

hotter than pukka structures, making

them,asthereportputsit,“uninhabitable”

onhotdays.Moreover,theheat,dampand

crampedconditionsmakeslumresidents

morevulnerabletodisease—alessobvious

riskofclimatechange.

Theplanis,alas,skimpyondetailsof

howtoachieveitsambitions.Still,inpub­

lishingoneatallMumbaihasledtheway

amongSouth Asian metropolises. Other

citiesarekeentofollowsuit,saysShruti

Narayanofc40,a clubofmegacities,who

helpedwiththereport.ChennaiandBan­

galoreinthesouthhavestartedworkon

theirplans. Others,includingDelhi and

KolkatainIndia,DhakainBangladeshand

KarachiinPakistanhaveexpressedinter­

estindoingsomethingsimilar.

ThereisplentyinMumbai’s240­page

documenttoinspirethem.Oneisthefact

thatitdoesnotrelyonusingtechnologies

thatdonotyetexist,a criticismlevelledat

manycountries’ nationalproposals.An­

otheristheattentiongiventoadaptation

(copingwithallthebadthingsalreadyhap­

pening)andnotjustmitigation(reducing

futureemissions).

Specifics may anyway be beside the

point.TherealvalueofMumbai’splanisas

a signallingdevicethat“focusestheatten­

tionofpolicymakers”,reckonsAbhasJha,a

climatespecialistattheWorldBank.The

Paris Agreement, which committed the

worldtothegoalofkeepingtheriseintem­

peraturestolessthan2°Cabovepre­indus­

triallevels,workedinmuchthesameway,

leavingcountriestohashoutdetailslater.

Time,though,isgettingevershorter. n

M UMBAI

Mumbaiplansfornet-zero 20 years

beforetherestofIndia

Summer forever

Mumbai, India, departure from the average

1981-2010 baseline air temperature, °C

Source: Mumbai Climate Action Plan

1.0

0.5

0

-0.5

-1.0

90801973 2000 2010