202 Franz nuscheler
have survived so long. The history of Palestine is one of migration and will
remain so in the foreseeable future – again, with major consequences for
both regular and irregular migration to Europe.
The central question is not how it came to the present plight of ‘struc-
tural peacelessness’ of two neighbouring peoples after multitudes of peace
initiatives, but how the further development of this unsolved conf lict will
inf luence regional conf licts and migration patterns. The election victory
of the Iran-supported Hamas Party in the Gaza Strip represents a decisive
point in the long history of this conf lict because this organisation rejects any
peaceful solution and is at odds (sometimes violently) with the competing
Fatah group, which has shown more willingness to compromise.
The political, economic and demographic development in the Gaza
Strip exacerbates the explosive security situation in the entire region. High
fertility rates have led to a veritable population explosion in this narrow
and encapsulated territory that offers the young population (despite the
high educational standards) low future prospects and where a peaceful
conf lict solution has been blocked since the election victory of Hamas.
The subsequent loss of international subsidies has caused a humanitarian
catastrophe. All of this has resulted in armed conf licts between Hamas and
Fatah which have the potential to trigger large migration from the Gaza
Strip to the West Bank, to neighbouring countries and to Europe. The violent
removal by Hamas of the border with Egypt following Israel’s shutting of
the borders and its refusal to supply this zone with important goods was a
desperate act that could take place again at any time.
Still, things could turn out quite differently if the existential hardships
(and pressure from its Arab neighbours) were to force Hamas to take up
negotiations and enter into a compromise with Israel. Earlier examples of
such a development are the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel as well
as the arrangement negotiated by the US between Israel and the Palestine
Liberation Organisation (PLO), both of which were the result of a general
weariness of the parties and their respective comprehension of existential
necessities.
Analysts of the conf lict in the Middle East are still sceptical about the
realistic likelihood of reaching a peaceful and long-lasting solution, but
compromise does seem possible in this complicated power struggle, as
was the case in past relations between Arabs and Israel. But, and this is an
important observation, these solutions are hardly calculable in scenarios.
Security policy is determined by how interests are perceived and thus
expressly includes irrational behaviour.