The uncerTainTies involved in calculaTing migraTion 203
6.5.4 Lebanon: Instability factor in the Middle East conf lict
Lebanon is ethnically and religiously very heterogeneous, with a Muslim
majority ruled by a Christian power elite (Maronites). It has been involved in
two wars with Israel and experienced a very destructive civil war (1975-1991)
of its own while, at the same time, having to put up with Syrian occupation
troops that instrumentalised the independently operating Shiite Hezbollah
f ighters following their own forced withdrawal. This situation especially
upset the wealthy Christians, with their many connections with the rest of
the world, and produced a constant and, in part, growing stream of migrants
to Europe and other areas of the world. Media attention has remained mod-
erate only because the overall number of migrants has remained moderate.
This small country has been home to large Palestinian refugee camps
since the very f irst war following the establishment of the state of Israel
- a constant source of unrest and a never-ending f low of new recruits for
terrorist groups. The ensuing political instability in Lebanon has brought
about constant insecurity and has become a background for a multitude
of civil-war-like conf licts in the region. And in the future this will surely
remain a central push factor for migration. At the same time, though small
and the child of colonialism, together with Syria (a constant interventional
power) it forms an important transit and reception area for migrants from
Iraq and other areas of conf lict in South Asia.
If the organisations representing the Muslim majority (and enjoying the
support of Syria and Iran) succeed in forcing out the Maronitic ruling class
from all political off ices, a new civil war fought with the support of much
external money and arms will surely ensue – which may not only induce
Israel to intervene once again, but may also trigger a new and even larger
f low of refugees to both near and far. Though small, Lebanon, like Syria, is
still a force to be reckoned with in the conf lict and migration potential of
the Middle East region.
6.5.5 Once upon a time: ‘Bad guy’ Gaddaf i as Europe’s accomplice in
matters of migration
The repressive regime of Muammar al-Gaddaf i in Libya served to block
irregular migration from sub-Saharan Africa – and thus did the ‘dirty
work’ for Europe as far as migration is concerned. According to data from
the UNHCR, tens of thousands of African refugees were stranded in the
poorly supplied refugee camps in Libya; there they were subject to many