222 Ralf E. UlRich
over the next few decades, a rising group of young men will be entering
employment age, many of them without f inding a job. This is already a
serious social problem. Yet, drawing a direct line from the youthful age
structure in the MENA region and a specif ic conf lict potential would be
premature. These countries are, today, no more conf lict-prone than any
other region solely because of their distinctive youthfulness – nor will
they in the future be more or less vulnerable through changes in their
age structure. This becomes obvious in the differences present within the
region: MENA states with a higher income from oil production have fewer
problems, despite a growing number of young jobless men.
The situation in the EU-27 is completely the reverse. The number of
persons of employable age (20-64 years) in the EU-27 is expected to fall
moderately over the next few decades – from the current 307.3 million to
287.7 million by 2030 (i.e., 6 per cent). In the MENA region, however, this
group of persons will grow by 40 per cent from 253.4 million at present
to 355.2 million by 2030 (see Table 7.10). As mentioned above, this demo-
graphic development would lead to a considerable overall growth if the
complementary production factors of capital and arable/buildable land
(including water resources) were suff iciently available. Yet, especially
in countries with few natural resources (i.e., oil), this is hardly to be
expected.
Table 7.10 Adult population of employable age (20–64), in millions
Index 2030 % of population
1950 2010 2020 2030 2010 =100 2010 2030
EU 216. 5 3 0 7. 3 301. 5 2 8 7. 7 93.6 61.4 55.8
MENa 48.5 253.4 308.2 355.2 14 0.1 55.8 59.7
Egypt 10. 3 43.6 52.8 61.6 141. 3 53.8 5 7. 9
Morocco 3.8 18 .1 20.9 22.6 12 5.1 56.6 60.4
Turkey 9.8 42.7 49.5 53.6 12 5. 5 58.7 61. 8Source: UNPD (2011a)
The absolute and relative sizes of the age group 65+ are often the indicators
used to determine an ageing population. In the EU, nearly 20 per cent of all
inhabitants are 65 and older, whereas in the MENA states the f igure today
lies at 4.8 per cent – set to grow only to 8.4 per cent by 2030 (see Table 7.11).
The number of persons aged 65 and older will grow by 40 per cent in the EU,