DEMogRaPhic DEvEloPMENTS iN ThE MENa REgioN 223
and will more than double in the MENA countries. Yet, in absolute terms,
nearly a quarter of the EU population will be 65 and older in 2030.
Table 7.11 Age group 65+ (in millions)
Index 2030 % of population
1950 2010 2020 2030 2010 =100 2010 2030
EU 33.0 8 7.1 103.4 121.9 14 0.0 17. 4 23.6
MENa 3.9 21.6 32.3 49.9 230.9 4.8 8.4
Egypt 0.6 4.1 6.3 9.3 228.3 5.0 8.7
Morocco 0.3 1.8 2.5 3.9 223.5 5.5 10. 5
Turkey 0.6 4.3 6.5 9.9 2 2 7. 3 6.0 11. 4Source: UNPD (2011a)
Analogous to the youth dependency ratio, the age dependency ratio provides
the relationship between the number of persons aged 65+ and the overall
population aged 20-64 years. In the EU countries, this ratio was 15.2 in 1950
and is currently 28.4. According to the UNDP’s projections of the medium
scenario, it will reach 42.5 by the year 2030 (see Table 7.12). The increase in
the age dependency ratio will be felt in the MENA states much later – by
2030 the age dependency ratio will rise to only 13.9.
Table 7.12 Age dependency ratio, persons aged 65+ per 100 persons aged 20–64
1950 2010 2020 2030
EU 15. 2 28.4 34.4 42.5
MENa 8 .1 8.6 10.4 13.9
Egypt 6.3 9.4 12. 0 15.1
Morocco 6.8 9.7 12. 0 17. 3
Turkey 6.5 10. 2 13.1 18.4Source: UNPD (2011a)
Finally, we look at the dependency ratio that consists of the sum of the
youth dependency and the age dependency ratios and which shows how
strongly those aged 20-64 will be burdened by economically dependent
children, adolescents and the elderly. In 1950, the MENA countries had
a much higher dependency ratio than today’s EU member states: 114.9 to
72.7. These two f igures have since converged. And, by 2030, the f inal year of
our projections, the situation will have reversed. The continual rise of the