224 Ralf E. UlRich
elderly population in the EU will be accompanied by a decline in the youth
dependency ratio in the MENA region. The small rise in seniors in the MENA
states will effectively be less than the decline in the youth dependency
ratio – a phenomenon sometimes called the demographic dividend of the
MENA countries (and of other developing countries).^5
Table 7.13 Dependency ratio, persons aged <20 and >65 per 100 persons aged 20–64
1950 2010 2020 2030
EU 72.7 63.0 69.7 79.5
MENa 114. 9 82.4 74.4 69.2
Egypt 109. 5 86.0 79.5 72.8
Morocco 136 .1 76.6 67. 6 65.7
Turkey 115. 9 70.3 63.2 61.7Source: UNPD (2011a)
The dependency ratio is a very good indicator of the economic burden
a society will experience because of its intergenerational contract. Over
the past 50 years, the demographic conditions have been very favourable
to OECD countries and considerably more unfavourable for developing
countries. Yet the tide will turn. Even so, as in other areas, there is no
strict ‘demographic determinism’. Many other social conditions – and, of
course, the political will in the respective country – inf luence how such
demographic parameters will, in the end, affect the EU countries and
whether the MENA countries will be able to draw true advantages from
their demographic dividend.
7.4 The relevance of the uneven demographic development
Migration is an integral part of population dynamics; it inf luences both
the size and the structure of the population. Without immigration, many
European countries would have experienced a population decline from the
early 1970s to today. Conversely, it is generally expected that the size and
structure of a population will inf luence its potential for voluntary emigra-
5 The demographic dividend is a situation in the development of a population where the
overall dependency ratio is a relative minimum. It opens a window of opportunity for reforms
and political measures due to a smaller burden of age groups outside the labour force.