DEMogRaPhic DEvEloPMENTS iN ThE MENa REgioN 225
tion, but caution is necessary when an uneven demographic development
is used to forecast f lows of migration.^6
The ability to move the centre of one’s life from one place to another
is not equally distributed throughout all stages of life and all age groups.
Rather, the decision to migrate to another country occurs when potential
migrants have weighed the possible costs and benef its. At a young age, the
expected benef its outweigh the expected costs, which is why it is easier for
young people to decide to pack up and go. If all other conditions inf luencing
individual migration decisions hold constant, it may be expected that the
emigration potential of a demographically young society will be higher than
that in a society with a relatively greater portion of older persons. Thus, seen
over many decades, the migration potential of a society not only depends
on the population size, but also on its age- and sex-specif ic migration rates
(see also Fassmann in this volume) and on the demographic and – maybe
more important – economic development in the receiving country (see
Bommes, Fellmer and Zigmann in this volume). Migrants do not choose a
destination country primarily because of its demographic characteristics;
they go where the economic level and the social parameters provide them
with an individual gain in welfare for themselves and their children. The
differential between the welfare level of their own country and that of the
destination country is an important criterion for persons willing to migrate.
The demographic situation in the destination country, at least in the short
term, plays only a subordinate role.
It is often argued that the lower fertility and the demographic ageing of
European societies will, in the long run, automatically lead to a need for
immigration. Translating demographic forecasts from European countries
into one of future immigration requirements remains controversial. Euro-
pean countries, by increasing their productivity, lengthening the working
lifetime of their citizens, increasing the overall labour-force participation
rate (especially of women) and placing greater emphasis on ways to decrease
joblessness, have done a great deal towards creating the potential to thwart
the expected demographic situation. In addition, a slowly rising fertility
rate would also change the situation considerably.
Clearly, there will be demographic def icits in the labour situation in
many European countries over the next decades. Controlled immigration
is certainly one important tool for overcoming this situation, but not,
of course, the only one available. The problems on the European labour
6 The following comments do not include persons forced to leave their country and become
refugees.