226 Ralf E. UlRich
market which can be felt today and which will certainly increase in future
years are, however, not only and perhaps not even primarily caused by
demographics. Rather, they are based on a misallocation of resources and
market malfunctioning. In some German states, for example, it is becoming
very diff icult to get doctors to move to rural areas to replace their retiring
colleagues. At f irst glance this may seem to be a demographic phenomenon,
but there is also unemployment among doctors in other areas and many
doctors leave the country to work elsewhere.
Both in the home and in the destination countries the respective demo-
graphic development inf luences both emigration and immigration. Yet in
both cases there is no simple linear relationship. Neither emigration from
the MENA states nor immigration into Europe can adequately be explained
by the demographic-hydraulic theory.
One way to look at the complexity of these factors inf luencing the indi-
vidual decision to migrate (or not) is the classical Byerlee/Todaro model,
as illustrated in Figure 7.3 (Byerlee 1974; Todaro 1981).
The starting-point of any decision process – to stay or to move – is a jux-
taposition of the benef its and costs of migrating. Demographic conditions
in the home country, in general, inf luence social security as well as other
factors concerning employment and income, or the availability of land
and water for a growing rural population. In the destination country, the
demographic situation inf luences overall economic development as well as
the job market and the likelihood of an individual getting a job or support
through transfer payments if unemployed. Most parts of the model depicted
are at least 30 years old. The interesting argument is that Byerlee and Todaro
went well beyond the simple push-pull model, emphasising the role of
information and networking in reaching such migration decisions. Thus,
deciding to emigrate or not is less an individual decision than a family or
even a collective one.
7.5 Conclusion
The projected demographic development in the MENA countries over the
next twenty years will affect the migration potential of the entire region.
Although fertility is falling, the increase in overall population will continue
for some time to come. The result will be frictions in the job market and an
increasing conf lict potential arising from the limited water supplies and
arable land. For a large part of the still-growing population aged between
twenty and 40 this makes emigration a choice to be considered.