Migration from the Middle East and North Africa to Europe Past Developments, Current Status, and Future Potentials (Amsterdam..

270 Michael BoMMes, siMon FellMer and Friederike ZigMann

Table 9.4

Egypt: scenario 1

2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

gdp

eu

31,959.42

3 2 , 9 2 7. 8 2

34,607.47

36,372.80

38 , 228 .18

gdp

egypt

6 , 417. 2 8

7, 3 4 8. 5 2

10 , 311. 4 9

13,79 9.10

18,466.31

difference % (2012 = 100%)

100.00

10 0.15

95.12

88.38

7 7. 37

gni

eu

32,352.00

33,233.39

34,756.05

36,348.48

38,013.87

gni

egypt

2,784.00

3,18 8 .0 0

4,473.42

5,986.45

8 , 011. 2 2

difference % (2012 = 100%)

100.00

101.61

102.42

102.69

101.47

lpr

eu

59.62

59.62

59.62

59.62

59.62

lpr

e gypt

49.50

46.40

44.90

44.20

47. 5 0

difference % (2012 = 100%)

100.00

130. 63

145.45

152. 37

119. 76

emigration potential

• 
  

1,701, 861

1, 824,465

1,952,908

2,084,269

average % differences

100.00

110. 8 0

114. 3 3

114. 4 8

99.53

Final emigration potential

• 
  

1,885,619

2,085,927

2,235,658

2, 074, 56 0

reduced by network effect

• 
  

471,405

521,482

558 ,915

518,6 40

source: Fassmann; i

MF; un

; ilo

; authors’ calculations