270 Michael BoMMes, siMon FellMer and Friederike ZigMann
Table 9.4
Egypt: scenario 1
2012
2015
2020
2025
2030
gdp
eu
31,959.42
3 2 , 9 2 7. 8 2
34,607.47
36,372.80
38 , 228 .18
gdp
egypt
6 , 417. 2 8
7, 3 4 8. 5 2
10 , 311. 4 9
13,79 9.10
18,466.31
difference % (2012 = 100%)
100.00
10 0.15
95.12
88.38
7 7. 37
gni
eu
32,352.00
33,233.39
34,756.05
36,348.48
38,013.87
gni
egypt
2,784.00
3,18 8 .0 0
4,473.42
5,986.45
8 , 011. 2 2
difference % (2012 = 100%)
100.00
101.61
102.42
102.69
101.47
lpr
eu
59.62
59.62
59.62
59.62
59.62
lpr
e gypt
49.50
46.40
44.90
44.20
- 5 0
difference % (2012 = 100%)
100.00
- 63
145.45
152. 37
119. 76
emigration potential
1,701, 861
1, 824,465
1,952,908
2,084,269
average % differences
100.00
110. 8 0
114. 3 3
114. 4 8
99.53
Final emigration potential
1,885,619
2,085,927
2,235,658
2, 074, 56 0
reduced by network effect
471,405
521,482
558 ,915
518,6 40
source: Fassmann; i
MF; un
; ilo
; authors’ calculations