Thinking, Fast and Slow
detecting relationships that were in fact present. Availability provides a natural account for the illusory-correlation effect. ...
percentage of African countries in the United Nations were 25 and 45 for groups that received 10 and 65, respectively, as starti ...
people tend to overestimate the probability of conjunctive events^20 and to underestimate the probability of disjunctive events. ...
X 90 so that he is just willing to accept 9 to 1 odds that the Dow Jones average will not exceed it. A subjective probability di ...
adjustment from different anchors. In procedure (i), the natural starting point is one’s best estimate of the quantity. In proce ...
intricate and less transparent problems. It is not surprising that useful heuristics such as representativeness and availability ...
because he believes that team A is more likely to win; he does not infer this belief from his betting preferences. Thus, in real ...
predictable errors. A better understanding of these heuristics and of the biases to which they lead could improve judgments and ...
Notes 1. D. Kahneman and A. Tversky, “On the Psychology of Prediction,” Psychological Review 80 (1973): 237–51. 2. Ibid. 3. Ibid ...
R. C. Galbraith and B. J. Underwood, “Perceived Frequency of Concrete and Abstract Words,” Memory & Cognition 1 (1973): 56–6 ...
Appendix B: Choices, Values, And Frames * Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky ABSTRACT: We discuss the cognitive and the psychophys ...
uncertain events such as the weather or the opponent’s resolve, the choice of an act may be construed as the acceptance of a gam ...
current wealth W and an even chance to move to W + $20 or to W n indispan> – $20. This representation appears psychologically ...
intuition that a loss of $X is more aversive than a gain of $X is attractive. Loss aversion explains people’s reluctance to bet ...
prospect B in every respect and better than B in at least one respect, then A should be preferred to B. Invariance requires that ...
programs: Problem 2 ( N = 155): If Program C is adopted, 400 people will die. (22%) If Program D is adopted, there is a one-thir ...
prefer. Decision (i) Choose between: A. a sure gain of $240 (84%) B. 25% chance to gain $1,000 and 75% chance to gain nothing (1 ...
of invariance illustrated in the previous problems, but the advice is easier to give than to follow. Except in the context of po ...
to 100%. These considerations suggest a category-boundary effect: A change from impossibility to possibility or from possibility ...
overweighting of low probabilities reverses the pattern described above: It enhances the value of long shots and amplifies the a ...
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