Thinking, Fast and Slow

The remembering self and the experiencing self must both be considered, because their interests do not always coincide. Philosop ...

reversals, which Humans cannot consistently avoid. The definition of rationality as coherence is impossibly restrictive; it dema ...

his right to do so. Citizens know what they are doing, even when they choose not to save for their old age, or when they expose ...

1 and the laziness of System 2. Rational agents are assumed to make important decisions carefully, and to use all the informatio ...

government better accomplish its goals. The official name for this group is the Behavioural Insight Team, but it is known both i ...

The attentive System 2 is who we think we are. System 2 articulates judgments and makes choices, but it often endorses or ration ...

available, that response is evoked. What happens in the absence of skill? Sometimes, as in the problem 17 × 24 = ?, which calls ...

which you should not trust your impressions of length. Unfortunately, this sensible procedure is least likely to be applied when ...

better decisions. Decision makers are sometimes better able to imagine the voices of present gossipers and future critics than t ...

Appendix A: Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases * Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman Many decisions are based on bel ...

process B? What is the probability that process B will generate event A? In answering such questions, people typically rely on t ...

lawyers. The odds that any particular description belongs to an engineer rather than to a lawyer should be higher in the first c ...

assessed by representativeness, then the judged probability of a sample statistic will be essentially independent of sample size ...

Which of the two individuals should feel more confident that the urn contains 2/3 red balls and 1/3 white balls, rather than the ...

represented by a statistically significant result in a sample with little regard for its size. As a consequence, the researchers ...

undoubtedly aware of the limited predictability of teaching competence on the basis of a single trial lesson 5 years earlier; ne ...

somewhat disappointing. Conversely, if one selects ten children from among those who did worst on one version, they will be foun ...

are typically administered when performance is poor. By regression alone, therefore, behavior is most likely to improve after pu ...

than earlier occurrences. It is a common experience that the subjective probability of traffic accidents rises temporarily when ...

One way to answer this question without computation is to mentally construct committees of k members and to evaluate their numbe ...