Paris Climate Agreement Beacon of Hope

47 Mitchell DM (2016) Attributing the forced components of observed stratospheric temperature variability to external drivers. Q ...

48 Rigby M, Mühle J, Miller BR, Prinn RG, Krummel PB, Steele LP, Fraser PJ, Salameh PK, Harth CM, Weiss RF, Greally BR, O’Dohert ...

49 Steffen W, Broadgate W, Deutsch L, Gaffney O, Ludwig C (2015) The trajectory of the Anthropocene: the great acceleration. Ant ...

50 Open Access This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http:/ ...

© The Author(s) 2017 51 R.J. Salawitch et al., Paris Climate Agreement: Beacon of Hope, Springer Climate, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319- ...

52 measurements of GMST from three data centers: CRU,^1 GISS,^2 and NCEI^3 and use the latest version of each data record availa ...

53 of climate, is it called a negative feedback. The total effect of all responses to the prescribed perturbation to RF of clima ...

54 Two other scenarios, RCP 6.0 (Masui et al. 2011 ) and RCP 2.6 (van Vuuren et al. 2011b), were considered by IPCC ( 2013 ). Th ...

55 most recent IPCC report (Rogelj et al. 2016 ), below we show these GCMs likely over-estimate the actual warming that will occ ...

56 and over the last two decades the observed rate of increase in GMST has been at the lower end of rates simulated by CMIP5 mod ...

57 (Bony et al. 2006 ) and transport of heat from the atmosphere to the ocean that drives a long term rise in the temperature of ...

58 the efficiency of the transfer of heat from the atmosphere to the ocean. We then use these two parameters to project global w ...

59 models. Below, results are shown with and without consideration of these three terms. No lag is imposed for these three terms ...

60 Figure 2.4 is a so-called “ladder plot” that compares a time series of observed, monthly values of ΔT (top rung) from CRU (bl ...

61 regression constant C 0 (not shown). Finally, the bottom panel shows a comparison of a time series of OHC (available only fro ...

62 Consideration of these three additional ocean proxies improves the simulation of ΔT around year 1910 and in the mid-1940s (Fi ...

63 Figure 2.6 shows total ΔRF (black line) due to tropospheric aerosols that was used as EM-GC input (i.e., the term Aerosol ΔRF ...

64 We next describe data used to define EM-GC inputs of stratospheric optical depth (SOD), total solar irradiance (TSI), El Niño ...

65 bations to the stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer induced by volcanic eruptions that are energetic enough to penetrate the t ...

66 and Ramankutty 1994 ). Here, data from HadSST3.1.1.0 have been used (same cita- tions and web address as for ENSO). As shown ...