Paris Climate Agreement Beacon of Hope

67 The PDO represents the temporal evolution of specific patterns of sea level pres- sure and temperature of the Pacific Ocean p ...

68 world’s oceans occurs in the upper 700 m (Sect. 5.2.2.1 of IPCC 2007 ). This multi- plication is carried out because ocean he ...

69 values of γ and κ is presented. Two additional model output terms, the climate feed- back parameter (λ) and Equilibrium Clima ...

70 has attained equilibrium, in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO 2. In the EM-GC framework ECS is expressed as^16 : ECSW ...

71 The EM-GC simulation in Fig. 2.4 has χ^2 = 1.52. In the world of physics, this would be termed a reasonably good model simula ...

a b c Fig. 2.9 Observed and EM-GC simulated global warming, 1860–2015 as well as global warming projected to 2060. (a) Top rung ...

73 (2) tropospheric aerosols have offset a considerable portion of the GHG warming over the prior decades because cooling (sulfa ...

74 projection of ΔT. Much more work is needed to better quantify ΔRF due to aero- sols, because of the complexity of aerosol typ ...

75 Fig. 2.10 (a) Observed and EM-GC simulated global warming, 1860–2015 as well as global warming projected to 2060. Top rung of ...

76 Fig. 2.11 Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity from the literature and EM-GC simulations. Estimates of ECS from six previously pub ...

77 third that examined Earth’s energy budget in detail over various decadal periods (Otto et al. 2013 ). The right hand side of ...

78 First, some terminology must be defined. Chap. 10 of IPCC ( 2013 ) examined the amount of warming over specific time periods ...

79 This dependence of AAWR on OHC is illustrated by the colored symbols in Fig. 2.13, which show the best estimate (symbols) and ...

80 and three quarters of the CMIP5 GCMs exhibit warming that exceeds the highest plausible value for AAWR that we infer from the ...

81 GHGs (Vial et al. 2013 ; Zelinka et al. 2013 ; Zhou et al. 2015 ).^25 Furthermore, GCMs that represent clouds in such a way t ...

82 the approach of FR2011 to the derivation of AAWR using both the older version of the CRU ΔT used in their study and the more ...

83 the strength of AMOC are considered. The ZT13 estimate of AAWR without consideration of AMOC is in close agreement with the v ...

84 slope of 0.054 ± 0.05 °C/decade over this 15-year period, about a factor of two less than the modeled slope of 0.108 ± 0.03 ° ...

85 Analysis of the GISS and NCEI data sets leads to a different conclusion. As shown in Fig. 2.14b, c, the observed and modeled ...

86 GMST relative to pre-industrial background). Complicating matters further, CMIP5 GCMs on average overestimate the observed ra ...