Thinking, Fast and Slow

10% to the sales of each store is wrong. You want your forecasts to be regressive, which requires adding more than 10% to the lo ...

Taming Intuitive Predictions Life presents us with many occasions to forecast. Economists forecast inflation and unemployment, f ...

A causal link between the evidence (Julie’s reading) and the target of the prediction (her GPA) is sought. The link can be indir ...

By now you should easily recognize that all these operations are features of System 1. I listed them here as an orderly sequence ...

sets of questions. The difference should be obvious, but it is not. Unlike the first questions, which required you only to evalu ...

their usual mission, which was to evaluate the performance of candidates during their stay at the unit the task I had asked them ...

1. Start with an estimate of average GPA. 2. Determine the GPA that matches your impression of the evidence. 3. Estimate the cor ...

A Defense of Extreme Predictions? I introduced Tom W earlier to illustrate predictions of discrete outcomes such as field of spe ...

Correcting your intuitive predictions is a task for System 2. Significant effort is required to find the relevant reference cate ...

likely outcome. A rational person will invest a large sum in an enterprise that is most likely to fail if the rewards of success ...

can be estimated with fair precision. The other candidate is more exciting and intuitively promising, but its prospects are less ...

“The investment may be a good idea, even if the best guess is that it will fail. Let's not say we really believe it is the next ...

Part 3 ...

Overconfidence ...

The Illusion of Understanding The trader-philosopher-statistician Nassim Taleb could also be considered a psychologist. In The B ...

made the event predictable in advance. No story of Google’s unlikely success will meet that test, because no story can include t ...

intelligent and well-informed people were keenly interested in the future of the economy and did not believe a catastrophe was i ...

substitution—and many cannot believe that they ever felt differently. Your inability to reconstruct past beliefs will inevitably ...

seemed prudent in foresight can look irresponsibly negligent in hindsight. Based on an actual legal case, students in California ...

Recipes for Success The sense-making machinery of System 1 makes us see the world as more tidy, simple, predictable, and coheren ...