Thinking, Fast and Slow

artists and experienced photographers have developed the skill of seeing the drawing as an object on the page. For the rest of u ...

correlation between the number of dates and reported happiness was about as high as correlations between psychological measures ...

believe its benefits are substantial and its costs more manageable than the costs of alternatives. If you are a hawk in your att ...

“He likes the project, so he thinks its costs are low and its benefits are high. Nice example of the affect heuristic.” “We are ...

(WYSIATI) generates a limited set of basic assessments represents sets by norms and prototypes, does not integrate matches inten ...

Part 2 ...

Heuristics and Biases ...

The Law of Small Numbers A study of the incidence of kidney cancer in the 3,141 counties of the United a>< HЉStates reveal ...

collections of random events do behave in a highly regular fashion. Imagine a large urn filled with marbles. Half the marbles ar ...

as facts: they are what scientists call artifacts, observations that are produced entirely by some aspect of the method of resea ...

research project into a gamble. Suppose that you wish to confirm the hypothesis that the vocabulary of the average six-year-old ...

sophisticated participants (including authors of two statistical textbooks) at a meetatiрp> Amos and I called our first joint ...

that it evokes will spread as if the message were true. System 2 is capable of doubt, because it can maintain incompatible possi ...

the other two sequences. We are pattern seekers, believers in a coherent world, in which regularities (such as a sequence of six ...

nonobvious cause was hopeless, and that in the meantime the pilots in the squadron that had sustained losses did not need the ex ...

characteristics of the most successful schools. Many researchers have sought the secret of successful education by identifying t ...

Speaking of the Law of Small Numbers “Yes, the studio has had three successful films since the new CEO took over. But it is too ...

Anchors Amos and I once rigged a wheel of fortune. It was marked from 0 to 100, but we had it built so that it would stop only a ...

best known of the findings we reported there. There was only one trouble: Amos and I did not fully agree on the psychology of th ...

the child both deliberately adjust down, and both fail to adjust enough. Now consider these questions: When did George Washingto ...