Thinking, Fast and Slow

background. Kuran and Sunstein focused on two examples that are still controversial: the Love Canal affair and the so-called Ala ...

problem. The net effect of the incident on public health was probably detrimental because fewer good apples were consumed. The A ...

Slovic rightly stresses the resistance of the public to the idea of decisions being made by unelected and unaccountable experts. ...

Tom W’s Specialty Have a look at a simple puzzle: Tom W is a graduate student at the main university in your state. Please rank ...

Tom W is of high intelligence, although lacking in true creativity. He has a need for order and clarity, and for neat and tidy s ...

(“little feel and little sympathy for other people”). Professional stereotypes appear to have changed little in the nearly forty ...

rate, it would have to be Robyn. I called Robyn over, gave him the question I had just typed, and asked him to guess Tom W’s pro ...

probability of events, no one ever raised a hand to ask me, “Sir, what do you mean by probability?” as they would have done if I ...

Young men are more likely than elderly women to drive aggressively. In all these cases and in many others, there is some truth t ...

effect. An experiment that was conducted a few years ago with Harvard undergradut oates yielded a finding that surprised me: enh ...

probability stay close to the base rate. Don’t expect this exercise of discipline to be easy—it requires a significant effort of ...

that intuitive impressions of the diagnosticity of evidence are often exaggerated. The combination of WY SIATI and associative c ...

Linda: Less Is More The best-known and most controversial of our experiments involved a fictitious lady called Linda. Amos and I ...

bank teller is not a feminist activist, and adding that detail to the description makes for a more coherent story. The twist com ...

of Business, all of whom had taken several advanced courses in probability, statistics, and decision theory. We were surprised a ...

contrast, required an explicit comparison that mobilized System 2 and allowed most of the statistically sophisticated students t ...

The two questions have the same logical structure as the Linda problem, but they cause no fallacy, because the more detailed out ...

in a real market for baseball cards. He auctioned sets of ten high-value cards, and identical sets to which three cards of modes ...

misinterpretation of probability, we constructed a problem that required probability judgments, but in which the events were not ...

The incidence of errors was 65% in the group that saw the problem on the left, and only 25% in the group that saw the problem on ...