The Rules of Contagion
one: both eventually plateau, but the VCR curve grows exponentially at first. Simple models of contagion will usually predict th ...
Illustration of an outbreak curve that grows exponentially until everyone is affected Back in real life, there are a few infecti ...
rise and fall of epidemics as far as we can see at present can be explained by the general laws of happenings,’ they suggested.[ ...
2 Panics and pandemics ‘I of heavenly bodies but not the madness of people.’ According to legend, Isaac Newton said this aft ...
institutions, they agreed a $3.6bn bailout. It was an expensive lesson, but unfortunately not one that was learned. Almost exact ...
For mathematics students, an internship in finance was the brightly lit path that distracted from all others. Everyone I knew on ...
imagination,’ financial mathematician Emanuel Derman once noted, ‘so that, inevitably, a model will be used in ways its creator ...
tumbling in value by the day, but it didn’t seem to matter as long as there were still naïve investors out there to sell them on ...
Those years with Deutsche Bank would be highly profitable for both parties. Although the data involved financial stocks rather t ...
was during the South Sea Bubble.[17] Founded in 1711, the British South Sea Company controlled several trading and slavery contr ...
that more will join afterwards, driving up the value of their investment. [21] This can lead to what is known as the ‘greater fo ...
The four phases of a bubble Adapted from original graphic by Jean-Paul Rodrigue Unlike pyramid schemes, which follow a rigid str ...
One signature feature of a bubble is that it grows rapidly, with the rate of buying activity increasing over time. Bubbles often ...
double in size.[26] In one press release, WorldCom had claimed that user demand was growing by 10 per cent every week. For this ...
judgment as to see a friend get rich’.[31] Investors’ desire to be part of a growing trend can even cause warnings about a bubbl ...
as a whole. ‘There was a lot of faith in the vast, complex financial system being self-correcting,’ he said. ‘The attitude was “ ...
would turn out to be one of the most important concepts in outbreak analysis.[38] The idea in question had originated with Georg ...
In contrast to the rates and thresholds used by Kermack and McKendrick, R is a more intuitive – and general – way to think about ...
Because outbreaks often grow exponentially at first, a small change in R can have a big effect on the expected number of cases a ...
Anderson quickly applied the idea to other problems, encouraging others to join them. It soon became clear the reproduction numb ...
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