The Rules of Contagion
ongoing transmission and a regular stream of new cases from one year to the next. Eight of Shakespeare’s plays include mentions ...
mosquito-borne infection. In 1905, with the Americans now leading the Panama project, US Army Colonel William Gorgas oversaw an ...
person in 1,000 was initially infectious, on average only 12 of those 12,000 mosquitoes would bite that one infectious person an ...
Ross calculated that even if there were 48,000 mosquitoes in a village that contained someone infected with malaria, it might on ...
[25] In his analysis, Farr didn’t account for the mechanics of disease transmission. There were no rates of infection or rates o ...
Mathematical models like Ross’s often have a reputation for being opaque or complicated. But in essence, a model is just a simpl ...
malaria cases: the disease remained in England until the 1950s, and was only eliminated from continental Europe in 1975.[29] Alt ...
used to study spinal fluids. He was working alone in Edinburgh’s Royal College of Physicians Laboratory that evening, and would ...
Given the names of the three groups, this is commonly known as the ‘SIR model’. Say a single influenza case arrives in a populat ...
Why doesn’t everyone get infected? It’s because of a transition that happens mid-outbreak. In the early stages of an epidemic, t ...
that the epidemic cannot continue to grow. The epidemic will therefore turn over and start its decline. When there are enough im ...
Near the critical herd immunity threshold, a small change in one of these factors can be the difference between a handful of cas ...
cases cropped up slightly later than the main Zika outbreak, which is what we’d expect for a syndrome that takes a couple of we ...
smaller event had included a team from French Polynesia. So which explanation was most plausible? According to evolutionary biol ...
cases reported there in 2013/14, twelve had required ventilators. According to the Pasteur model, this meant they could have a ...
of people affected by something – whether a disease or another event – might change over time. Ross suggested that there are two ...
plateau. In reality, the curve won’t necessarily level off at 100 per cent: the final amount of people affected will depend on w ...
amount of people who are on the housing ladder by a certain age, or the chance your bus has arrived after a certain time waiting ...
of Innovations.[51] He noted that the initial adoption of new ideas and products generally followed this shape. In the mid twent ...
In the 1960s, marketing researcher Frank Bass developed what was essentially an extended version of Ross’s model.[52] Unlike Rog ...
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