Global Warming

The past millionyears 69 Figure 4.4Variations over the last 160 000 years of polar temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide co ...

70 Climates ofthe past The third variation is of the time of year when the Earth is closest to the Sun (the Earth’s perihelion). ...

How stable haspast climate been? 71 (a) (b) Earth 24.5 degrees 21.6 degrees Sun 0 100 200 300 Thousands of years ago Summer suns ...

72 Climates ofthe past Figure 4.6Variations in Arctic temperature over the past 100 000 years as deduced from oxygen isotope mea ...

How stable haspast climate been? 73 for other regions. Compare this with a temperature rise during the twen- tieth century of ab ...

74 Climates ofthe past −− 3838 − 36 − 34 − 32 − 30 −28 ‰ −^35 −^30 Gerzensee Lake sediments DYE 3 δ^18 O δ^18 O ‰ Deep ice core ...

Notes 75 explanation which involve the deep ocean circulation. It is also clear from paleodata that large changes have occurred ...

76 Climates ofthe past the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge: Cambridge Univers ...

Chapter 5 Modelling the climate Chapter 2looked at the greenhouse effect in terms of a simple radiation balance. That gave an es ...

78 Modelling theclimate Figure 5.1Illustrating the growth of computer power available at major forecasting centres. The computer ...

Modelling the weather 79 Figure 5.2Schematic illustrating the parameters and physical processes involved in atmospheric models. ...

80 Modelling theclimate Setting up a numerical atmospheric model A numerical model of the atmosphere contains descriptions, in a ...

Modelling theweather 81 Figure 5.3Illustration of a model grid. The levels in the vertical are not equally spaced; the top level ...

82 Modelling the climate Data to initialise the model At a major global weather forecasting centre, data from many sources are c ...

Figure 5.5Errors (root mean square differences of forecasts of surface pressure compared with analyses) of UK Meteorological Off ...

Weather forecasting and chaos^4 The science of chaos has developed rapidly since the 1960s (when a meteorologist Edward Lorenz w ...

Seasonal forecasting 85 Weather forecasting and chaoscontinued Figure 5.8Analyses and forecasts of the surface pressure in milli ...

86 Modelling theclimate future? Although we cannot expect to forecast the weather in detail, is there any possibility of predict ...

Forecasting for the African Sahel region The Sahel region of Africa forms a band about 500 km wide alongthe southern edgeof the ...

88 Modelling theclimate mid latitudes are associated with these El Ni ̃no events (see Figure 1.4). A good test of the atmospheri ...