Paris Climate Agreement Beacon of Hope

87 Studies of tropospheric aerosol ΔRF are unable, at present time, to definitely rule out any of these possibilities. One clear ...

88 century if the emissions of GHGs, particularly CO 2 , follow those used to drive RCP 8.5.^32 The book Six Degrees: Our Future ...

89 will occur. In other words, the most probable value of ΔT in year 2060, for the EM-GC projection that uses RCP 4.5, is 1.2–1. ...

90 able to conduct many simulations in this model framework. Figure 2.18 is similar to Fig. 2.17, except the projection is for y ...

91 RCP 8.5. The colors represent the probability of a particular future value of ΔT being achieved, for projections computed in ...

92 important appearance on these figures. Also, the Paris target (1.5 °C) and upper limit (2 °C) are marked on the right vertica ...

93 The policy implication articulated above differs considerably from the consensus in the climate modeling community that emiss ...

94 The figures also contain observed global, annually averaged mixing ratios for each GHG. Observed CO 2 is from data provided b ...

95 (b) for GISS, 0.1002 °C is first added to each value of ΔT; 0.1002 °C is the differ- ence between the mean value of GISS ΔT d ...

96 Table 2.3 AAWR from GCM RCP 4.5 simulations in the CMIP5 archive CMIP5 GCM Modeling Center Ensemble run GCM-AAWR (°C/dec)LIN ...

97 CMIP5 GCM Modeling Center Ensemble run GCM-AAWR (°C/dec)LIN REG CanCM4 Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis r1i ...

98 Table 2.3 (continued) CMIP5 GCM Modeling Center Ensemble run GCM-AAWR (°C/dec)LIN REG FGOALS-g2 Institute of Atmos. Physics, ...

99 (continued) CMIP5 GCM Modeling Center Ensemble run GCM-AAWR (°C/dec)LIN REG GISS-E2-H NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studie ...

100 Table 2.3 (continued) CMIP5 GCM Modeling Center Ensemble run GCM-AAWR (°C/dec)LIN REG HadCM3 Met Office Hadley Centre, Unite ...

101 CMIP5 GCM Modeling Center Ensemble run GCM-AAWR (°C/dec)LIN REG MIROC-ESM Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technolo ...

102 For a GCM to have been used, a historical file had to have been submitted to the CMIP5 archive. The historical files contain ...

103 We have modified the PICR value for direct radiative forcing of sulfate, using data from Stern (2006a, b), and Smith et al. ...

104 Giese et al. ( 2011 ): http://dsrs.atmos.umd.edu/DATA/soda_hc2_700.nc Gouretski and Reseghetti ( 2010 ): http://www1.ncdc.no ...

105 Figure 2.11 shows twelve estimates of ECS. The six to the left are previously published values and the six to the right are ...

106 to different realizations of an ensemble simulation, all of which are initialized with different but equality realistic init ...