Foundations of Cognitive Psychology: Preface - Preface
Williams-Sonoma did not sell many units of the new item, but the sales of the less-expensive appliance almost doubled. The effec ...
The psychological principles discussed in this chapter do not form a unified theory, comparable to the rational theory of choice ...
References Arkes, H. R., and K. R. Hammond, eds. (1986).Judgment and decision making.NewYork:Cambridge University Press. Bazerma ...
Tversky, A., and E. Shafir (1992a). The disjunction effect in choice under uncertainty.Psychological Science3, 5, 305–309. Tvers ...
Chapter 27 For Those Condemned to Study the Past: Heuristics and Biases in Hindsight Baruch Fischhoff Benson (1972) has identifi ...
dimensions. The resulting matrix is scoured for significant relationships that might aid us in predicting the future.... Formal ...
on the basis o fa set o fcues or attributes. When, as in these examples, the deci- sion is repetitive and all cases can be chara ...
faith—confidence that our predecessors knew things we do not know. The first o fthese faiths is grounded in philosophy; it disti ...
ence to any one favored research method. They argue that obstinate refusal to look at contrary evidence or to abandon apparently ...
unpopular points o fview (Janis, 1972). In practice, the first strategy may fail because shared misconceptions make the groups v ...
One corollary tendency is to telescope the rate o fhistorical processes, exag- gerating the speed with which ‘‘inevitable’’ chan ...
outcomeknowledge,weimmediatelymakesenseoutofitbyintegratingitinto what we already know about the subject. Having made this reint ...
also the year in which he made his first appointment to the Court. That he had this opportunity in 1937 should come as no surpri ...
The pseudopower o four explanations can be illustrated by analogy with re- gression analysis. Given a set o fevents and a su ffi ...
fitting is their long-run failure to predict any better than market averages (Dreman, 1979)—although the cynic might say that th ...
hindsight research described earlier suggests that we are not only quick to find order but also poised to feel that we knew it a ...
circumstantial evidence, Freud went on to build an imposing and coherent analysis o fLeonardo. While compiling the definitive ed ...
Learning Returning to Benson (1972), i fwe want the past to serve the future, we cannot treat it in isolation. The rules we use ...
Diaconis continues, ‘‘To further complicate any analysis, several such ill-defined experiments were often conducted simultaneou ...
Furby, L. (1973). Interpreting regression toward the mean in developmental research.Developmental Psychology, 8, 172–179. Gallie ...
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