Titel_SS06
1.00E-04 1.00E-03 1.00E-02 1.00E-01 1.00E+00 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 RI F Annual f ailure probability Figure 9.16: Relatio ...
10 th Lecture: Bayesian Probabilistic Nets in Risk Assessment Aim of the present lecture The present lecture introduces Bayesian ...
10.1 Introduction Bayesian probabilistic networks (BPN) or Bayesian belief networks (BBN) were developed during the last two dec ...
accordance with requirements and well documented. The second fact being that two different construction teams were involved in t ...
called a directed graph. The relations between the variables being expressed in terms of family relations, such that when the li ...
BC D A BC D A Figure 10.4: Illustration of a converging network. Formally a Bayesian network is composed of: A set of variable ...
As an example consider the problem concerning the bridges described earlier. For this problem a Bayesian Network is constructed ...
P BR BR PR EX( 1, 2, , ) ( )( )( 1 , )( 2 , )P PR P EX P BR PR EX P BR PR EX (10.3) which may be performed in the following ste ...
Bridge1 G B Bridge 2 G 0.81+0.0225+0.0225+0=0.855 0.0225+0.0225=0.045 B 0+0.0225+0.0225+0=0.045 0+0.0225+0.0225+0.01=0.055 Table ...
that marginalization is always performed over the smallest possible number of product terms the table dimensions required to man ...
probabilistic nets provide an enormously strong tool for decision analysis, including prior analysis, posterior analysis and pre ...
Figure 10.6: Illustration of the results of the risk analysis of the power supply system. The Bayesian probabilistic nets have s ...
Figure 10.8: Illustration of Bayesian probabilistic network including common cause failures/dependencies. Analysis of the net sh ...
decision analysis involves the analysis of decision event trees which is quite involving in size and complexity. However, availa ...
Figure 10.10: Bayesian net with the variable state Stratum, the decision node Pile length and the utility node Utility. In this ...
The probabilities in Table 10.9 shall be understood as the probability of e.g. indicating a stratum depth of 40 ft given that th ...
actually at least to some degree the case in many developing countries. It is a great challenge for the engineering profession t ...
occurring events usually the probability of the event itself is needed; e.g. the probability that a flood will occur or the prob ...
Risk ManagementRisk Management On-site observationsOn-site observations Official/insurance dataOfficial/insurance data Airplane ...
Merci project (http://www.merci.ethz.ch/). The BPN illustrated in Figure 10.17 also includes decision nodes such as to facilitat ...
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